Home prices to dip further
Amid the current supply-demand imbalance, the gradual decline in private home prices is set to continue for the rest of the year after three quarters of decreases, say property consultants.
Including the 1.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter drop in the second quarter based on Urban Redevelopment Authority’s (URA) latest flash estimate, the official private home price index has shed 3.2 per cent in three straight quarters of declines after peaking in Q3 last year.
Home Prices set to fall further
In the first half, the index has eased 2.3 per cent (comparing the latest Q2 number with that for Q4 2013) and consultants expect a 4-8 per cent full-year decline. Property consultants are forecasting a moderate price erosion – barring a recession or external shocks.
ERA’s key executive officer Eugene Lim reckons the softening rental market – which has been under pressure on the back of rising private housing completions and a slowdown in new demand due to reduced expat inflow – is also contributing to sliding home prices.
The 1.1 per cent drop in Q2 is smaller than Q1’s 1.3 per cent fall. That was probably due to prices of non-landed homes in the city fringe, or Rest of Central Region (RCR), easing at a slower clip of 0.6 per cent in the April-June quarter compared with the 3.3 per cent slide in the first three months.
Softer Rental Market Contributes to lower Property Prices
Market watchers believe the RCR subindex in Q2 was probably supported by the launch of Kallang Riverside and Commonwealth Towers, with respective median prices of $2,111 per square foot and $1,626 psf achieved in their first month of launch.
In all other categories – non-landed private homes in Core Central Region (CCR) and Outside Central Region (OCR), as well as landed properties – the latest flash estimate Q2 price declines were bigger than in Q1 .
The 1.1 per cent contraction in suburban locations or OCR in Q2 (compared with a 0.1 per cent dip in Q1) is thought to be due to lower-priced units transacted at a number of projects – most notably The Panorama in Ang Mo Kio but also to a lesser extent, Vue 8 Residence in Pasir Ris, Riverbank @ Fernvale, The Tembusu in Kovan and The Skywoods in the Dairy Farm area.
The pace of price decline also gathered momentum for non-landed homes in CCR – which includes the traditional prime districts 9, 10 and 11, Downtown Core Planning Area and Sentosa. The subindex shrank 1.5 per cent in Q2 after falling 1.1 per cent in Q1.
This segment has posted the sharpest drop of 5 per cent after five consecutive quarters of decline since its recent peak (in Q1 2013), amid a slowdown in purchases by foreign buyers and investors due to the additional buyer’s stamp duty (ABSD).
Landed homes – long regarded as a bastion of strength in the Singapore property landscape due to their more limited supply – have also been seeing their prices crumble. URA’s subindex for this category eased 1.5 per cent in Q2, double the 0.7 per cent fall in Q1.